Russia plans to invade Latvia

Security researcher: "Russia could try to test NATO"

WORLD: Mr. Kasekamp. Estonia borders with Russia. How safe do you feel?

Andres Kasekamp: It is paradoxical: on the one hand, the security of the Baltic States is better guaranteed than ever in history; on the other hand, the world situation is worrying. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are now very well integrated into the European security structures. They are NATO and EU members. There have been NATO troops in the Baltic States since 2017.


Kasekamp: But the US-Russia conflict in Syria can escalate quickly and unexpectedly. Russia could then attack where it has clear advantages from a military point of view. The western allies are clearly superior to Russia, but this does not apply to the Baltic Sea region. If Russia wants another confrontation, it could happen in the countries bordering the Baltic Sea.

WORLD: They fear a scenario like the one in Ukraine ...

Kasekamp: I can't imagine an invasion coming. But the Baltic Sea has already become more restless. In recent weeks, Russia has announced missile tests in the Baltic Sea, disrupting air traffic in the region.

WORLD: US President Donald Trump has questioned his country's loyalty to NATO. He later made a U-turn. Can you still rely on the USA?

Kasekamp: Without the US, NATO would lose its meaning. US Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis and ex-Security Advisor Herbert R. McMaster understood the concerns of Europe and the Baltic States very well. They probably also played an important role in the US bringing troops and military equipment to the Baltic States last year. In addition, the US is giving the Baltic states and Poland under Trump more military aid than any US government has ever done. People in the Baltic States are happy about that.

WORLD: So there is no danger for NATO under Trump?