How is Atar scaled
Weather models comparison for Puno Atar
- Each model is assigned a color that is used in all diagrams. The legend next to the diagram shows a list of the model names and the corresponding colors.
- The first graph shows the predicted temperatures from each model. The time from sunrise to sunset is displayed in light yellow. The dashed line represents the mean value from all models.
- The second diagram shows the amount of precipitation. Blue bars show precipitation in mm (water) per hour. The bars darken as more models predict precipitation.
- Weather symbols are used to indicate the forecasted weather conditions on the third graph. The background is light blue for clear skies, light gray for light clouds, and dark gray for thick clouds.
The displayed parameters come directly from the output of the weather model and are not scaled to the exact altitude and position of the selected location.
Often predictions are very accurate, sometimes less accurate, and sometimes completely wrong. It would be good to know in advance if the prediction is likely to be correct, but how? All weather forecasts are calculated by computer models and sometimes they differ significantly, which indicates that there are uncertainties and difficulties in calculating an accurate weather forecast. In such cases, the weather forecast will likely change daily. Our multimodel diagram shows the weather forecast for several models from meteoblue and other, mostly national, weather services. In general, the greater the differences between the models, the greater the uncertainty of the prediction.
What to do if the forecast is uncertain
- Develop alternatives for your decisions that are feasible with different weather developments.
- Check the forecast more frequently at short intervals.
- Check the development of the current weather.
- Postpone important activities if they depend heavily on the weather.
Limits of Prediction
- thunderstorm: The exact trajectory and time of thunderstorms can hardly be predicted, and the associated amounts of precipitation or hail can change significantly over a small area and over time.
- Thin layer clouds: Fog and low clouds are invisible to most models or to satellites and can therefore incorrectly not be predicted correctly despite high predictability. As a result, sunny conditions are often overestimated, especially in foggy locations.
- topography: Hilly alpine terrain is a major challenge for weather forecasting. Deep clouds and precipitation can develop there without being measured and are then not sufficiently taken into account in the weather models.
Weather events are difficult to predict, vary greatly in place and time, or depend on the local terrain. For example, a locally predicted precipitation could occur one kilometer away, a cold air front could arrive a few hours later or a thunderstorm could develop differently. Such conditions can cause errors in the weather forecast and should be viewed with caution.
Weather models simulate physical processes. A weather model divides the world or a region into small grid cells. Each cell is about 4 km to 40 km in size and between 100 meters and 2 km high. Our models consist of 60 atmospheric layers and reach deep into the stratosphere up to an altitude of 10-25hPa (60km). The weather is simulated by solving complex mathematical equations between all grid cells every few seconds, and all calculated parameters (such as temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, etc.) are saved every full hour.
meteoblue operates a large number of its own weather models and integrates weather data from various sources. All meteoblue models are calculated twice a day on our own high-performance computers.
NEMS model family:Improved NMM successor (in operation since 2013). NEMS is a multi-scale model (usable for global, regional and local domains) and significantly improves cloud development and precipitation forecast.
|NEMS4||Central Europe||4 km||72 h||21:38 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS12||Europe||12 km||180 h||22:10 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS2-12||Europe||12 km||168 h||01:09 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS-8||Central America||12 km||180 h||00:50 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS12||India||12 km||180 h||23:03 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS10||South America||10 km||180 h||00:20 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS10||South Africa||10 km||180 h||23:43 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS8||New Zealand||8 kilometers||180 h||10:21 pm EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS8||Japan & East Asia||8 kilometers||180 h||22:00 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS30||Global||30 km||180 h||20:24 EAT||meteoblue|
|NEMS2-30||Global||30 km||168 h||14:19 EAT||meteoblue|
NMM model family:The first meteoblue weather model (in operation since 2007). NMM is a regional weather model and is highly optimized for complex terrain.
|NMM4||Central Europe||4 km km||72 h||20:42 EAT||meteoblue|
|NMM12||Europe||12 km km||180 h||21:56 EAT||meteoblue|
|NMM18||South America||18 km km||180 h||00:01 EAT||meteoblue|
|NMM18||South Africa||18 km km||180 h||10:25 pm EAT||meteoblue|
|NMM18||South East Asia||18 km km||180 h||22:57 EAT||meteoblue|
Third party domains: As seen on most other websites
|GFS22||Global||22 km||180 h (@ 3 h)||19:32 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|GFS40||Global||40 km||180 h (@ 3 h)||19:50 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|GFSENS05||Global||40 km||384 h (@ 3 h)||01:22 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|NAM3||North America||3 km||60 h||18:42 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|NAM5||North America||5 km||60 h||20:26 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|NAM12||North America||12 km||84 h (@ 3 h)||18:42 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|FV3-5||Alaska||5 km||60 h||14:27 EAT||NOAA NCEP|
|ICON7||Europe||7 km||120 h (@ 3 h)||19:43 EAT||German Weather Service|
|ICON13||Global||13 km||180 h (@ 3 h)||21:38 EAT||German Weather Service|
|ICON2||Germany & Alps||2.2 km||27 h||23:16 EAT||German Weather Service|
|GEM2||North America||2.5 km||48 h||8:21 pm EAT||Environment Canada|
|GEM15||Global||15 km||168 h (@ 3 h)||21:14 EAT||Environment Canada|
|AROME2||France||2 km||36 h||20:27 EAT||METEO FRANCE|
|ARPEGE11||Europe||11 km||96 h||10:19 pm EAT||METEO FRANCE|
|ARPEGE40||Global||40 km||96 h (@ 3 h)||20:14 EAT||METEO FRANCE|
|HRMN5||Central Europe||5 km||48 h||20:28 EAT||KNMI|
|HIRLAM11||Europe||11 km||48 h||20:31 EAT||KNMI|
|HIRLAM7||Europe||7 km||54 h||22:03 EAT||Finnish Meteorological Institute|
|UKMO-17||Global||17 km||144 h (@ 3 h)||20:19 EAT||UK MET OFFICE|
meteoblue weather models calculate the weather for most of the populated areas of the world with high resolution (3-12 km). The map on the side shows NMM domains (red) and NEMS domains (black boxes). The entire world is calculated with NEMS in a resolution of 30 km also in hourly steps (and thus covers all areas). For a location forecast, several weather models, statistical analyzes, measurements, radar and satellite telemetry are taken into account and combined to generate the most accurate and most likely weather forecast for any location on earth.
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