How is Atar scaled

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Weather models comparison for Puno Atar

  • Each model is assigned a color that is used in all diagrams. The legend next to the diagram shows a list of the model names and the corresponding colors.
  • The first graph shows the predicted temperatures from each model. The time from sunrise to sunset is displayed in light yellow. The dashed line represents the mean value from all models.
  • The second diagram shows the amount of precipitation. Blue bars show precipitation in mm (water) per hour. The bars darken as more models predict precipitation.
  • Weather symbols are used to indicate the forecasted weather conditions on the third graph. The background is light blue for clear skies, light gray for light clouds, and dark gray for thick clouds.

The displayed parameters come directly from the output of the weather model and are not scaled to the exact altitude and position of the selected location.

Often predictions are very accurate, sometimes less accurate, and sometimes completely wrong. It would be good to know in advance if the prediction is likely to be correct, but how? All weather forecasts are calculated by computer models and sometimes they differ significantly, which indicates that there are uncertainties and difficulties in calculating an accurate weather forecast. In such cases, the weather forecast will likely change daily. Our multimodel diagram shows the weather forecast for several models from meteoblue and other, mostly national, weather services. In general, the greater the differences between the models, the greater the uncertainty of the prediction.

What to do if the forecast is uncertain

  1. Develop alternatives for your decisions that are feasible with different weather developments.
  2. Check the forecast more frequently at short intervals.
  3. Check the development of the current weather.
  4. Postpone important activities if they depend heavily on the weather.

Limits of Prediction

  • thunderstorm: The exact trajectory and time of thunderstorms can hardly be predicted, and the associated amounts of precipitation or hail can change significantly over a small area and over time.
  • Thin layer clouds: Fog and low clouds are invisible to most models or to satellites and can therefore incorrectly not be predicted correctly despite high predictability. As a result, sunny conditions are often overestimated, especially in foggy locations.
  • topography: Hilly alpine terrain is a major challenge for weather forecasting. Deep clouds and precipitation can develop there without being measured and are then not sufficiently taken into account in the weather models.

Weather events are difficult to predict, vary greatly in place and time, or depend on the local terrain. For example, a locally predicted precipitation could occur one kilometer away, a cold air front could arrive a few hours later or a thunderstorm could develop differently. Such conditions can cause errors in the weather forecast and should be viewed with caution.

Weather models

Weather models simulate physical processes. A weather model divides the world or a region into small grid cells. Each cell is about 4 km to 40 km in size and between 100 meters and 2 km high. Our models consist of 60 atmospheric layers and reach deep into the stratosphere up to an altitude of 10-25hPa (60km). The weather is simulated by solving complex mathematical equations between all grid cells every few seconds, and all calculated parameters (such as temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, etc.) are saved every full hour.

meteoblue operates a large number of its own weather models and integrates weather data from various sources. All meteoblue models are calculated twice a day on our own high-performance computers.

modelregionresolutionlast updatesource

NEMS model family:Improved NMM successor (in operation since 2013). NEMS is a multi-scale model (usable for global, regional and local domains) and significantly improves cloud development and precipitation forecast.

NEMS4Central Europe4 km72 h 21:38 EAT meteoblue
NEMS12Europe12 km180 h 22:10 EAT meteoblue
NEMS2-12Europe12 km168 h 01:09 EAT meteoblue
NEMS-8Central America12 km180 h 00:50 EAT meteoblue
NEMS12India12 km180 h 23:03 EAT meteoblue
NEMS10South America10 km180 h 00:20 EAT meteoblue
NEMS10South Africa10 km180 h 23:43 EAT meteoblue
NEMS8New Zealand8 kilometers180 h 10:21 pm EAT meteoblue
NEMS8Japan & East Asia8 kilometers180 h 22:00 EAT meteoblue
NEMS30Global30 km180 h 20:24 EAT meteoblue
NEMS2-30Global30 km168 h 14:19 EAT meteoblue

NMM model family:The first meteoblue weather model (in operation since 2007). NMM is a regional weather model and is highly optimized for complex terrain.

NMM4Central Europe4 km km72 h 20:42 EAT meteoblue
NMM12Europe12 km km180 h 21:56 EAT meteoblue
NMM18South America18 km km180 h 00:01 EAT meteoblue
NMM18South Africa18 km km180 h 10:25 pm EAT meteoblue
NMM18South East Asia18 km km180 h 22:57 EAT meteoblue

Third party domains: As seen on most other websites

GFS22Global22 km180 h (@ 3 h)19:32 EAT NOAA NCEP
GFS40Global40 km180 h (@ 3 h)19:50 EAT NOAA NCEP
GFSENS05Global40 km384 h (@ 3 h)01:22 EAT NOAA NCEP
NAM3North America3 km60 h 18:42 EAT NOAA NCEP
NAM5North America5 km60 h 20:26 EAT NOAA NCEP
NAM12North America12 km84 h (@ 3 h)18:42 EAT NOAA NCEP
FV3-5Alaska5 km60 h 14:27 EAT NOAA NCEP
ICON7Europe7 km120 h (@ 3 h)19:43 EAT German Weather Service
ICON13Global13 km180 h (@ 3 h)21:38 EAT German Weather Service
ICON2Germany & Alps2.2 km27 h 23:16 EAT German Weather Service
GEM2North America2.5 km48 h 8:21 pm EAT Environment Canada
GEM15Global15 km168 h (@ 3 h)21:14 EAT Environment Canada
AROME2France2 km36 h 20:27 EAT METEO FRANCE
ARPEGE11Europe11 km96 h 10:19 pm EAT METEO FRANCE
ARPEGE40Global40 km96 h (@ 3 h)20:14 EAT METEO FRANCE
HRMN5Central Europe5 km48 h 20:28 EAT KNMI
HIRLAM11Europe11 km48 h 20:31 EAT KNMI
HIRLAM7Europe7 km54 h 22:03 EAT Finnish Meteorological Institute
UKMO-17Global17 km144 h (@ 3 h)20:19 EAT UK MET OFFICE

Worldwide coverage

meteoblue weather models calculate the weather for most of the populated areas of the world with high resolution (3-12 km). The map on the side shows NMM domains (red) and NEMS domains (black boxes). The entire world is calculated with NEMS in a resolution of 30 km also in hourly steps (and thus covers all areas). For a location forecast, several weather models, statistical analyzes, measurements, radar and satellite telemetry are taken into account and combined to generate the most accurate and most likely weather forecast for any location on earth.